The Bulletin on the Main Statistics from the Second National Agricultural Census (No. 1) (for short it refers to Bulletin hereafter) released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Jan 21, 2008, shows that by the end of 2006, there were 531 million working-age population (aged 16 and over with working capacity). The working- age population covers both the working population engaged in agricultural production in the rural areas and the population engaged in non-agricultural production in the rural areas, as well as migrant farming workers. There are 130 million migrant farmers with permanent household residence in rural areas who leave their hometowns and work elsewhere. Of them, 80.8% work in other areas rather than their native counties. If farming workers working in town/township enterprises are included, the total number of migrant farming workers across the nation will top 200 million, becoming the second largest labor force only next to the number of farmers but more than urban workers.
The production and living conditions of farmers have obviously been improved. According to statistics in the Bulletin, the living conditions of farmers have obviously been improved. The percentage of farmers having built their own houses is quite high, and they can afford more varieties of household durable consumer goods. The agricultural production mode has changed dramatically, and the agricultural mechanization level has noticeably been improved. In 2006, the machine-ploughed acreage accounted for 59.9% of the total area of cultivated land, up 17.8% than in 1996, the machine-sown acreage was 32.6%, up 16.4% and the machine-harvested acreage was 24.9%, up 12.9%. In addition, the infrastructure in rural areas has greatly been improved.
According to Mr. Yang Zhiming, director of the Office for the State Council Migrant Farming Workers and vice minister of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, the phenomenon of defaulting the payment to migrant farming workers in recent years has been curbed, and their payment level is gradually rising. By taking such measures as joint law enforcement, intensive punishment and daily supervision carried out by relevant departments of labor and social security, about RMB43 billion yuan of defaulted payments for migrant farming workers has been paid last year. All provinces have adjusted their minimum wage levels. As a result, the average wage level of these farming workers has greatly been raised. In 2007, their monthly average payment exceeded RMB1000 yuan. According to statistics from labor-export provinces or counties, the wage income for migrant farming workers accounts for one-third of the pure income for peasants per capita, and for more than half of the newly-added pure income locally.
The employment structure of the rural labor force has seen a noticeable change. According to the Bulletin, the employment structure of the rural labor force has noticeably been changed. By the end of 2006, the total labor force resources with their permanent household residence in rural areas were 530 million, of which 480 million were rural employees, accounting for 90.1%. The percentages of rural employees working in the primary, secondary and tertiary industries were 70.8%, 15.6% and 13.6% respectively. The percentage of employees working in the primary industry dropped by about five percentage points compared with that in the first National Agricultural Census conducted in 1996.
An estimation of the total number of surplus labor force in China’s rural areas. According to the estimation made by the Ministry of Agriculture, the current surplus labor force in China’s rural areas has reached about 100 million. Some Chinese economists do not believe there are so many surplus farming workers, and their estimation is that the number should be 70 or 80 million. However according to Cai Fang, a scholar from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), the number is even smaller. Liu Shouying, a researcher from the Department of Rural Areas of the State Council Development Research Center, points out that currently the labor force engaged in pure farming work in the rural areas of the East China coastal provinces is no more than 10% of the population, while in Central China the number is no more than 50% of the population. Therefore, the total number of the surplus labor force in China’s rural areas may be smaller than the official estimation.
Ye Qing, statistician and vice director of the Hubei Provincial Bureau of Statistics, believes that in China there are 531 million rural labor force resources from the recent agricultural census. If that number is subtracted by 479 million rural employees, the remaining is 50 million who can be regarded as the total number of estimated surplus labor force currently in China’s rural areas”.
The relationship between supply and demand of the labor force in China has undergone a dramatic change in recent years, according to an analysis made by Zhang Chewei, researcher from the Population and Labor Economics Institute, CASS. In the past 20 years, the annual growth of the rural labor force in China is tremendous, but, the growth gradually declined around 2004. However, the demand for labor force has been increasing rapidly due to the dramatic rise of the Chinese economy. China feels a shortage of labor force supply. In the coming 15 or 20 years, the annual growth of the labor force in China will continue to drop, and the labor force in China’s rural areas will continue to flow to the secondary and tertiary industries, a transfer from sectors with relatively low productivity such as agriculture to such sectors as the manufacturing and service industries. During this process, the price of labor force will gradually rise. According to Zhang Chewei, the data of the rural labor force from the agricultural census is basically in compliance with the estimation and calculation made by the domestic demographers and economists. Though the size of newly-added labor force in China is decreasing each year, the supply of the labor force is not a big problem because there is a relatively huge labor force reserve. (Translated by Hu yi)
